Read Online Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 by Michio Kaku - Free Book Online Page A
Authors: Michio Kaku
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and then radios the signals to a nearby receiver. (This gives new meaning to the slogan “Intel inside.”) In this way, doctors may be able to take pictures of a patient’s intestines and detect cancers without ever performing a colonoscopy (which involves the inconvenience of inserting a six-foot-long tube up your large intestine). Microscopic devices like these also will gradually reduce the necessity of cutting skin for surgery.
This is only a sample of how the computer revolution will affect our health. We will discuss the revolution in medicine in much more detail in Chapters 3 and 4 , where we also discuss gene therapy, cloning, and altering the human life span.
LIVING IN A FAIRY TALE
Because computer intelligence will be so cheap and widespread in the environment, some futurists have commented that the future might look like something out of a fairy tale. If we have the power of the gods, then the heaven we inhabit will look like a fantasy world. The future of the Internet, for example, is to become the magic mirror of Snow White. We will say, “Mirror, mirror on the wall,” and a friendly face will emerge, allowing us to access the wisdom of the planet. We will put chips in our toys, making them intelligent, like Pinocchio, the puppet who wanted to be a real boy. Like Pocahontas, we will talk to the wind and the trees, and they will talk back. We will assume that objects are intelligent and that we can talk to them.
Because computers will be able to locate many of the genes that control the aging process, we might be forever young like Peter Pan. We will be able to slow down and perhaps reverse the aging process, like the boys from Neverland who didn’t want to grow up. Augmented reality will give us the illusion that, like Cinderella, we can ride to fantasy balls in a royal coach and dance gracefully with a handsome prince. (But at midnight, our augmented reality glasses turn off and we return to the real world.) Because computers are revealing the genes that control our bodies, we will be able to reengineer our bodies, replacing organs and changing our appearance, even at the genetic level, like the beast in “Beauty and the Beast.”
Some futurists have even feared that this might give rise to a return to the mysticism of the Middle Ages, when most people believed that there were invisible spirits inhabiting everything around them.
MIDCENTURY (2030 TO 2070)
END OF MOORE’S LAW
We have to ask: How long can this computer revolution last? If Moore’s law holds true for another fifty years, it is conceivable that computers will rapidly exceed the computational power of the human brain. By midcentury, a new dynamic occurs. As George Harrison once said, “All things must pass.” Even Moore’s law must end, and with it the spectacular rise of computer power that has fueled economic growth for the past half century.
Today, we take it for granted, and in fact believe it is our birthright, to have computer products of ever-increasing power and complexity. This is why we buy new computer products every year, knowing that they are almost twice as powerful as last year’s model. But if Moore’s law collapses—and every generation of computer products has roughly the same power and speed of the previous generation—then why bother to buy new computers?
Since chips are placed in a wide variety of products, this could have disastrous effects on the entire economy. As entire industries grind to a halt, millions could lose their jobs, and the economy could be thrown into turmoil.
Years ago, when we physicists pointed out the inevitable collapse of Moore’s law, traditionally the industry pooh-poohed our claims, implying that we were crying wolf. The end of Moore’s law was predicted so many times, they said, that they simply did not believe it.
But not anymore.
Two years ago, I keynoted a major conference for Microsoft at their main headquarters in Seattle, Washington. Three thousand of the top
This is only a sample of how the computer revolution will affect our health. We will discuss the revolution in medicine in much more detail in Chapters 3 and 4 , where we also discuss gene therapy, cloning, and altering the human life span.
LIVING IN A FAIRY TALE
Because computer intelligence will be so cheap and widespread in the environment, some futurists have commented that the future might look like something out of a fairy tale. If we have the power of the gods, then the heaven we inhabit will look like a fantasy world. The future of the Internet, for example, is to become the magic mirror of Snow White. We will say, “Mirror, mirror on the wall,” and a friendly face will emerge, allowing us to access the wisdom of the planet. We will put chips in our toys, making them intelligent, like Pinocchio, the puppet who wanted to be a real boy. Like Pocahontas, we will talk to the wind and the trees, and they will talk back. We will assume that objects are intelligent and that we can talk to them.
Because computers will be able to locate many of the genes that control the aging process, we might be forever young like Peter Pan. We will be able to slow down and perhaps reverse the aging process, like the boys from Neverland who didn’t want to grow up. Augmented reality will give us the illusion that, like Cinderella, we can ride to fantasy balls in a royal coach and dance gracefully with a handsome prince. (But at midnight, our augmented reality glasses turn off and we return to the real world.) Because computers are revealing the genes that control our bodies, we will be able to reengineer our bodies, replacing organs and changing our appearance, even at the genetic level, like the beast in “Beauty and the Beast.”
Some futurists have even feared that this might give rise to a return to the mysticism of the Middle Ages, when most people believed that there were invisible spirits inhabiting everything around them.
MIDCENTURY (2030 TO 2070)
END OF MOORE’S LAW
We have to ask: How long can this computer revolution last? If Moore’s law holds true for another fifty years, it is conceivable that computers will rapidly exceed the computational power of the human brain. By midcentury, a new dynamic occurs. As George Harrison once said, “All things must pass.” Even Moore’s law must end, and with it the spectacular rise of computer power that has fueled economic growth for the past half century.
Today, we take it for granted, and in fact believe it is our birthright, to have computer products of ever-increasing power and complexity. This is why we buy new computer products every year, knowing that they are almost twice as powerful as last year’s model. But if Moore’s law collapses—and every generation of computer products has roughly the same power and speed of the previous generation—then why bother to buy new computers?
Since chips are placed in a wide variety of products, this could have disastrous effects on the entire economy. As entire industries grind to a halt, millions could lose their jobs, and the economy could be thrown into turmoil.
Years ago, when we physicists pointed out the inevitable collapse of Moore’s law, traditionally the industry pooh-poohed our claims, implying that we were crying wolf. The end of Moore’s law was predicted so many times, they said, that they simply did not believe it.
But not anymore.
Two years ago, I keynoted a major conference for Microsoft at their main headquarters in Seattle, Washington. Three thousand of the top
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