ignorance, but what is statistical projection?"
Fran was used to the question and was impressed that Hawkins was admitting his ignorance up front. "I take information, collate it, and then make a computer program that gives probabilities on future trends."
"You predict the future, then?" Hawkins asked.
She graced him with a slight smile. "It's not that simple. Let's say I predict possible futures and give you the percentage chances of them occurring."
"How about the present?" Hawkins asked.
"What do you mean?"
"Could you try to make some sort of connection between the Rock, Voyager, the explosion at Vredefort, and the messages?"
Debra Levy spoke. "You're making a flawed assumption."
Hawkins didn't seem bothered by either the interruption or the negative comment. "In what way?"
"There are too many unknowns here to even begin to think all those events are interconnected," Levy said. "We know the message and Voyager are connected because of the use of the information from the record on board the probe. We don't know that the messages and the explosion at Vredefort Dome are connected. If they are, then the explosion occurred first and we know--or at least Mr. Lamb has told us--that was caused by radicals in South Africa. So I would say that it is very unlikely that those same radicals are causing the messages to be sent."
Hawkins considered that. "Then the explosion prompted the message."
"Maybe," Levy answered. "Why not do a time line of events, so we can see them more clearly? That's always the first step in trying to understand a problem."
"Sounds good," Hawkins concurred.
"I'm really not sure where my area of expertise enters into all of this," Debra commented. "I think I'll just look through what's accumulated in the computer so far and see if I find anything interesting."
"I have some things I have to check on," Hawkins said as he left the room.
21 DECEMBER 1995, 0930 LOCAL
20 DECEMBER 1995, 2400 ZULU
Lamb sat in the secure communications center and waited impatiently while a technician finished making contact with the appropriate satellite and, through it, Washington.
"You're good to go, sir." The man scuttled out the door and locked the thick hatch behind him. The center was now impervious to external eavesdropping. The microphone was voice activated and the television screen in front of Lamb showed a large desk and chair. He fought the urge to stand as the President entered the field of vision of the camera and sat down at the desk.
The weight of three years in office showed in the lines on the President's face. "What do you have, Steve?"
Lamb looked at the camera looming a few feet in front of him, just above the screen. "The team is working on the data we've accumulated. Nothing very surprising so far. None of them has a clue as to why they were chosen-or let me say that none of them has indicated having any idea. Volkers and Batson have clearances from Hermes, so they should be all right. Levy worries me. We've given her an interim clearance but we know little about her. I've got my people checking on her in the States. The strange thing is that Levy's name was on the roster to be considered for addition to the Hermes Project in a couple of months."
He looked down at his notes. "We're bringing in another person. An expert on meteor craters from Arizona."
The President frowned, as if this detail was bothersome. "Meteor craters?"
"It looks like four of the five reception sites for the message have suspected meteor strike spots in the immediate area. It may be nothing, but it's worth checking out."
The President was reading a note someone had handed him from the side. He returned his attention to the camera, dismissing the meteor issue. "So, nothing on the people so far. What about the Russians?"
Lamb wanted to sigh but held it in. The term Russians now covered a score of various independent republics, all with their own agendas, their own set of severe economic problems, their own
Fran was used to the question and was impressed that Hawkins was admitting his ignorance up front. "I take information, collate it, and then make a computer program that gives probabilities on future trends."
"You predict the future, then?" Hawkins asked.
She graced him with a slight smile. "It's not that simple. Let's say I predict possible futures and give you the percentage chances of them occurring."
"How about the present?" Hawkins asked.
"What do you mean?"
"Could you try to make some sort of connection between the Rock, Voyager, the explosion at Vredefort, and the messages?"
Debra Levy spoke. "You're making a flawed assumption."
Hawkins didn't seem bothered by either the interruption or the negative comment. "In what way?"
"There are too many unknowns here to even begin to think all those events are interconnected," Levy said. "We know the message and Voyager are connected because of the use of the information from the record on board the probe. We don't know that the messages and the explosion at Vredefort Dome are connected. If they are, then the explosion occurred first and we know--or at least Mr. Lamb has told us--that was caused by radicals in South Africa. So I would say that it is very unlikely that those same radicals are causing the messages to be sent."
Hawkins considered that. "Then the explosion prompted the message."
"Maybe," Levy answered. "Why not do a time line of events, so we can see them more clearly? That's always the first step in trying to understand a problem."
"Sounds good," Hawkins concurred.
"I'm really not sure where my area of expertise enters into all of this," Debra commented. "I think I'll just look through what's accumulated in the computer so far and see if I find anything interesting."
"I have some things I have to check on," Hawkins said as he left the room.
21 DECEMBER 1995, 0930 LOCAL
20 DECEMBER 1995, 2400 ZULU
Lamb sat in the secure communications center and waited impatiently while a technician finished making contact with the appropriate satellite and, through it, Washington.
"You're good to go, sir." The man scuttled out the door and locked the thick hatch behind him. The center was now impervious to external eavesdropping. The microphone was voice activated and the television screen in front of Lamb showed a large desk and chair. He fought the urge to stand as the President entered the field of vision of the camera and sat down at the desk.
The weight of three years in office showed in the lines on the President's face. "What do you have, Steve?"
Lamb looked at the camera looming a few feet in front of him, just above the screen. "The team is working on the data we've accumulated. Nothing very surprising so far. None of them has a clue as to why they were chosen-or let me say that none of them has indicated having any idea. Volkers and Batson have clearances from Hermes, so they should be all right. Levy worries me. We've given her an interim clearance but we know little about her. I've got my people checking on her in the States. The strange thing is that Levy's name was on the roster to be considered for addition to the Hermes Project in a couple of months."
He looked down at his notes. "We're bringing in another person. An expert on meteor craters from Arizona."
The President frowned, as if this detail was bothersome. "Meteor craters?"
"It looks like four of the five reception sites for the message have suspected meteor strike spots in the immediate area. It may be nothing, but it's worth checking out."
The President was reading a note someone had handed him from the side. He returned his attention to the camera, dismissing the meteor issue. "So, nothing on the people so far. What about the Russians?"
Lamb wanted to sigh but held it in. The term Russians now covered a score of various independent republics, all with their own agendas, their own set of severe economic problems, their own
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