Read Online Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes by Maria Konnikova - Free Book Online Page A
Authors: Maria Konnikova
Ads: Link
himself: how many actual women does he meet who end up being refined, sensitive, spiritual, sympathetic, sweet, and amiable, all at once?How typical is this type of person if you consider the population at large? Not very, I venture to guess—even if we factor in the blond hair and blue eyes, which are doubtless signs of saintliness and all. And how many women in total is he calling to mind when he sees Mary? One? Two? One hundred? What is the total sample size? Again, I’m willing to bet it is not very large—and the sample that has been selected is inherently a biased one.
While we don’t know what precise associations are triggered in the doctor’s head when he first sees Miss Morstan, my bet would be on the most recent ones (the recency effect), the most salient ones (the ones that are most colorful and memorable; all of those blue-eyed blondes who ended up being uninteresting, drab, and unimpressive? I doubt he is now remembering them; they may as well have never existed), and the most familiar ones (the ones that his mind has returned to most often—again, likely not the most representative of the lot). And those have biased his view of Mary from the onset. Chances are, from this point forward, it will take an earthquake, and perhaps even more than that, to shake Watson from his initial assessment.
His steadfastness will be all the stronger because of the physical nature of the initial trigger: faces are perhaps the most powerful cue we have—and the most likely to prompt associations and actions that just won’t go away.
To see the power of the face in action, look at these pictures.
1. Which face is the more attractive? and 2. Which person is the more competent?
If I were to flash these pictures at you for as little as one-tenth of a second, your opinion would already most likely agree with the judgments of hundreds of others to whom I’ve shown pictures of these two individuals in the same way. But that’s not all: those faces you just looked at aren’t random. They are the faces of two rival political candidates, who ran in the 2004 U.S. senate election in Wisconsin. And the rating you gave for competence (an index of both strength and trustworthiness) will be highly predictive of the actual winner (it’s the man on the left; did your competence evaluation match up?). In approximately 70 percent of cases, competence ratings given in under a second of exposure will predict the actual results of political races. And that predictability will hold in elections that range from the United States to England, from Finland to Mexico, and from Germany to Australia. From the strength of a chin and the trace of a smile, our brains decide who will serve us best. (And look at the result: Warren G. Harding, the most perfect square-jawed president that ever was.) We are wired to do just what we shouldn’t: jump to conclusions based on some subtle, subconscious cue that we’re not even aware of—and the repercussions extend to situations far more serious than Watson’s trusting too much in a client’s pretty face. Unprepared, he never stands a chance at that “true cold reason” that Holmes seems to hold in the tips of his fingers.
Just as a fleeting impression of competence can form the basis of a political vote, so Watson’s initial overwhelmingly positive assessment of Mary lays the foundation for further action that reinforces that initial view. His judgments from here on out will be influenced strongly by the effects of primacy—the persistent strength of first impressions.
With his eyes shaded by a rosy glow, Watson is now much more likely to fall prey to the halo effect (if one element—here, physical appearance—strikes you as positive, you are likely to see the other elements as positive as well, and everything that doesn’t fit will easily—and subconsciously—be reasoned away). He will also be susceptible to the classic correspondence bias: everything negative about Mary will be seen as a
While we don’t know what precise associations are triggered in the doctor’s head when he first sees Miss Morstan, my bet would be on the most recent ones (the recency effect), the most salient ones (the ones that are most colorful and memorable; all of those blue-eyed blondes who ended up being uninteresting, drab, and unimpressive? I doubt he is now remembering them; they may as well have never existed), and the most familiar ones (the ones that his mind has returned to most often—again, likely not the most representative of the lot). And those have biased his view of Mary from the onset. Chances are, from this point forward, it will take an earthquake, and perhaps even more than that, to shake Watson from his initial assessment.
His steadfastness will be all the stronger because of the physical nature of the initial trigger: faces are perhaps the most powerful cue we have—and the most likely to prompt associations and actions that just won’t go away.
To see the power of the face in action, look at these pictures.
1. Which face is the more attractive? and 2. Which person is the more competent?
If I were to flash these pictures at you for as little as one-tenth of a second, your opinion would already most likely agree with the judgments of hundreds of others to whom I’ve shown pictures of these two individuals in the same way. But that’s not all: those faces you just looked at aren’t random. They are the faces of two rival political candidates, who ran in the 2004 U.S. senate election in Wisconsin. And the rating you gave for competence (an index of both strength and trustworthiness) will be highly predictive of the actual winner (it’s the man on the left; did your competence evaluation match up?). In approximately 70 percent of cases, competence ratings given in under a second of exposure will predict the actual results of political races. And that predictability will hold in elections that range from the United States to England, from Finland to Mexico, and from Germany to Australia. From the strength of a chin and the trace of a smile, our brains decide who will serve us best. (And look at the result: Warren G. Harding, the most perfect square-jawed president that ever was.) We are wired to do just what we shouldn’t: jump to conclusions based on some subtle, subconscious cue that we’re not even aware of—and the repercussions extend to situations far more serious than Watson’s trusting too much in a client’s pretty face. Unprepared, he never stands a chance at that “true cold reason” that Holmes seems to hold in the tips of his fingers.
Just as a fleeting impression of competence can form the basis of a political vote, so Watson’s initial overwhelmingly positive assessment of Mary lays the foundation for further action that reinforces that initial view. His judgments from here on out will be influenced strongly by the effects of primacy—the persistent strength of first impressions.
With his eyes shaded by a rosy glow, Watson is now much more likely to fall prey to the halo effect (if one element—here, physical appearance—strikes you as positive, you are likely to see the other elements as positive as well, and everything that doesn’t fit will easily—and subconsciously—be reasoned away). He will also be susceptible to the classic correspondence bias: everything negative about Mary will be seen as a
Similar Books
