Read Online Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes by Maria Konnikova - Free Book Online
Authors: Maria Konnikova
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“a blonde young lady, small, dainty, well gloved, and dressed in the most perfect taste. There was, however, a plainness and simplicity about her costume which bore with it a suggestion of limited means.” Right away, the image stirs up memories in his head of other young, dainty blondes Watson has known—but not frivolous ones, mind you; ones who are plain and simple and undemanding, who do not throw their beauty in your face but smooth it over with a dress that is somber beige, “untrimmed and unbraided.” And so, Mary’s expression becomes “sweet and amiable, her large blue eyes were singularly spiritual and sympathetic.” Watson concludes his opening paean with the words, “In an experience of women which extends over many nations and three separate continents, I have never looked upon a face which gave a clearer promise of a refined and sensitive nature.”
Right away, the good doctor has jumped from a color of hair and complexion and a style of dress to a far more reaching character judgment. Mary’s appearance suggests simplicity; perhaps so. But sweetness? Amiability? Spirituality? Sympathy? Refinement and sensitivity? Watson has no basis whatsoever for any of these judgments. Mary has yet to say a single word in his presence. All she has done is enter the room. But already a host of biases are at play, vying with one another to create a complete picture of this stranger.
In one moment, Watson has called on his reputedly vast experience, on the immense stores of his attic that are labeled WOMEN I ’ VE KNOWN , to flesh out his new acquaintance. While his knowledge of women may indeed span three separate continents, we have no reason to believe thathis assessment here is accurate—unless, of course, we are told that in the past, Watson has always judged a woman’s character successfully from first glance. And somehow I doubt that’s the case. Watson is conveniently forgetting how long it took to get to know his past companions—assuming he ever got to know them at all. (Consider also that Watson is a bachelor, just returned from war, wounded, and largely friendless. What would his chronic motivational state likely be? Now, imagine he’d been instead married, successful, the toast of the town. Replay his evaluation of Mary accordingly.)
This tendency is a common and powerful one, known as the availability heuristic: we use what is available to the mind at any given point in time. And the easier it is to recall, the more confident we are in its applicability and truth. In one of the classic demonstrations of the effect, individuals who had read unfamiliar names in the context of a passage later judged those names as famous—based simply on the ease with which they could recall them—and were subsequently more confident in the accuracy of their judgments. To them, the ease of familiarity was proof enough. They didn’t stop to think that availability based on earlier exposure could possibly be the culprit for their feelings of effortlessness.
Over and over, experimenters have demonstrated that when something in the environment, be it an image or a person or a word, serves as a prime, individuals are better able to access related concepts—in other words, those concepts have become more available—and they are more likely to use those concepts as confident answers, whether or not they are accurate. Mary’s looks have triggered a memory cascade of associations in Watson’s brain, which in turn creates a mental picture of Mary that is composed of whatever associations she happened to have activated but does not necessarily resemble the “real Mary.” The closer Mary fits with the images that have been called up—the representativeness heuristic—the stronger the impression will be, and the more confident Watson will be in his objectivity.
Forget everything else that Watson may or may not know. Additional information is not welcome. Here’s one question the gallant doctor isn’t likely to ask
Right away, the good doctor has jumped from a color of hair and complexion and a style of dress to a far more reaching character judgment. Mary’s appearance suggests simplicity; perhaps so. But sweetness? Amiability? Spirituality? Sympathy? Refinement and sensitivity? Watson has no basis whatsoever for any of these judgments. Mary has yet to say a single word in his presence. All she has done is enter the room. But already a host of biases are at play, vying with one another to create a complete picture of this stranger.
In one moment, Watson has called on his reputedly vast experience, on the immense stores of his attic that are labeled WOMEN I ’ VE KNOWN , to flesh out his new acquaintance. While his knowledge of women may indeed span three separate continents, we have no reason to believe thathis assessment here is accurate—unless, of course, we are told that in the past, Watson has always judged a woman’s character successfully from first glance. And somehow I doubt that’s the case. Watson is conveniently forgetting how long it took to get to know his past companions—assuming he ever got to know them at all. (Consider also that Watson is a bachelor, just returned from war, wounded, and largely friendless. What would his chronic motivational state likely be? Now, imagine he’d been instead married, successful, the toast of the town. Replay his evaluation of Mary accordingly.)
This tendency is a common and powerful one, known as the availability heuristic: we use what is available to the mind at any given point in time. And the easier it is to recall, the more confident we are in its applicability and truth. In one of the classic demonstrations of the effect, individuals who had read unfamiliar names in the context of a passage later judged those names as famous—based simply on the ease with which they could recall them—and were subsequently more confident in the accuracy of their judgments. To them, the ease of familiarity was proof enough. They didn’t stop to think that availability based on earlier exposure could possibly be the culprit for their feelings of effortlessness.
Over and over, experimenters have demonstrated that when something in the environment, be it an image or a person or a word, serves as a prime, individuals are better able to access related concepts—in other words, those concepts have become more available—and they are more likely to use those concepts as confident answers, whether or not they are accurate. Mary’s looks have triggered a memory cascade of associations in Watson’s brain, which in turn creates a mental picture of Mary that is composed of whatever associations she happened to have activated but does not necessarily resemble the “real Mary.” The closer Mary fits with the images that have been called up—the representativeness heuristic—the stronger the impression will be, and the more confident Watson will be in his objectivity.
Forget everything else that Watson may or may not know. Additional information is not welcome. Here’s one question the gallant doctor isn’t likely to ask
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