best either has managed before is four and a half) and relegate Fianna Fáil forever from its status as the ânatural party of governmentâ.
However, to do that they must avoid the mistakes of the past, most notably their disastrous coalition of the mid-1980s. For four interminable and depressing years, divisions between Fine Gael and Labour meant that tough decisions were shirked and the already awful public finances continued to decline.
Labour was the chief culprit that time around, refusing to countenance cuts in spending that were clearly unavoidable. But Fine Gael was not blameless either. A repeat performance a quarter of a century later simply cannot be countenanced, for their sake and for the country.
Ideally, the long and tortuous, on-off programme for government negotiations between the two parties post polling day would be truncated. Certainly, what we donât need right now is a programme for government long on aspirational and esoteric platitudes and short on the brutal economic realities.
Of course, political realities will dictate that we will have the charade of the programme for government negotiations. Fair enough. But after that, the new government needs to quickly show that it means business. Itâs about the economy, stupid, and itâs pretty obvious what needs to be done and most of it is not pretty.
Right now there are large policy differences between the two would-be coalition partners, particularly on the speed in which the budget deficit needs to be addressed and the breakdown between tax increases and spending.
These differences definitely wonât stop Fine Gael and Labour putting together a programme for government. But they do have the potential to lead to paralysis in government at a later date.
In that regard, the choice of finance minister is critical. He or she will have to be both politically skilful and tough â with the latter characteristic more important than the former.
In opposition you can wax lyrical about eliminating waste and taxing the rich. In government the reality is that spending is dominated by social welfare and public sector pay and the majority of tax revenue comes from the great mass of workers. Unfortunately, if you want to make savings, theyâre the areas you have to hit.
The common perception is that Labour will insist on the finance portfolio in the new coalition. But there is also a view within Labour that it should not do so because of what holding the job will entail. If that view prevails, then Michael Noonan will be the next finance minister and there is little doubt he understands what needs to be done.
Whether the same will hold true for the electorate and the government backbenchers is likely to prove much trickier. As US voters found after Barack Obama replaced George Bush, a new administration does not suddenly make everything alright. The ABFF (anybody but Fianna Fáil) sentiment that exists at the moment will help propel Fine Gael and Labour to power but it wonât ensure their popularity for long when they have to make painful decisions.
And that could be difficult for government TDs to accept, particularly when up to half of them could be first-time deputies, unused to the rough and tumble of national politics. With such a large majority, the temptation for backbenchers to rebel against unpopular measures will be enormous.
Itâs difficult to know what, if anything, Fine Gael and Labour can do to head off such dissent. Ideally, it would seek to manage expectations between now and polling day as to what will be possible (or, more relevantly, impossible) when it comes to power.
With both parties striving for ascendency in the new government, that is probably wishful thinking. But that doesnât alter the reality for Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore that winning the election is going to be the easy bit. The big challenges will come after that.
Sean Dublin Bay Loftus was a lesson for the hurlers on the ditch.
However, to do that they must avoid the mistakes of the past, most notably their disastrous coalition of the mid-1980s. For four interminable and depressing years, divisions between Fine Gael and Labour meant that tough decisions were shirked and the already awful public finances continued to decline.
Labour was the chief culprit that time around, refusing to countenance cuts in spending that were clearly unavoidable. But Fine Gael was not blameless either. A repeat performance a quarter of a century later simply cannot be countenanced, for their sake and for the country.
Ideally, the long and tortuous, on-off programme for government negotiations between the two parties post polling day would be truncated. Certainly, what we donât need right now is a programme for government long on aspirational and esoteric platitudes and short on the brutal economic realities.
Of course, political realities will dictate that we will have the charade of the programme for government negotiations. Fair enough. But after that, the new government needs to quickly show that it means business. Itâs about the economy, stupid, and itâs pretty obvious what needs to be done and most of it is not pretty.
Right now there are large policy differences between the two would-be coalition partners, particularly on the speed in which the budget deficit needs to be addressed and the breakdown between tax increases and spending.
These differences definitely wonât stop Fine Gael and Labour putting together a programme for government. But they do have the potential to lead to paralysis in government at a later date.
In that regard, the choice of finance minister is critical. He or she will have to be both politically skilful and tough â with the latter characteristic more important than the former.
In opposition you can wax lyrical about eliminating waste and taxing the rich. In government the reality is that spending is dominated by social welfare and public sector pay and the majority of tax revenue comes from the great mass of workers. Unfortunately, if you want to make savings, theyâre the areas you have to hit.
The common perception is that Labour will insist on the finance portfolio in the new coalition. But there is also a view within Labour that it should not do so because of what holding the job will entail. If that view prevails, then Michael Noonan will be the next finance minister and there is little doubt he understands what needs to be done.
Whether the same will hold true for the electorate and the government backbenchers is likely to prove much trickier. As US voters found after Barack Obama replaced George Bush, a new administration does not suddenly make everything alright. The ABFF (anybody but Fianna Fáil) sentiment that exists at the moment will help propel Fine Gael and Labour to power but it wonât ensure their popularity for long when they have to make painful decisions.
And that could be difficult for government TDs to accept, particularly when up to half of them could be first-time deputies, unused to the rough and tumble of national politics. With such a large majority, the temptation for backbenchers to rebel against unpopular measures will be enormous.
Itâs difficult to know what, if anything, Fine Gael and Labour can do to head off such dissent. Ideally, it would seek to manage expectations between now and polling day as to what will be possible (or, more relevantly, impossible) when it comes to power.
With both parties striving for ascendency in the new government, that is probably wishful thinking. But that doesnât alter the reality for Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore that winning the election is going to be the easy bit. The big challenges will come after that.
Sean Dublin Bay Loftus was a lesson for the hurlers on the ditch.
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