eliminate one or another of the factors from the crime equation.
Some investigators, mostly profilers and forensic psychologists, focus on the first issueâthe offenderâs motivation: Why does he do it? Whatâs going through his head at the time of the crime? Personally, Iâve found itâs more helpful to just accept the fact that this person was motivated, for whatever reasonâand probably for more than oneâto commit the offense.
Other theorists study victimology or location: Who was victimized? How can you keep these people from being in high-risk areas at high-risk times? Some researchers study how people perceive public and private spaces and the likelihood of crime in those locations. Others track the temporal fluctuations of crime. And, of course, some criminologists try to increase (or give the appearance of increased) law enforcement presence, such as leaving empty police cars on busy roads or installing fake video surveillance cameras in conspicuous places.
Five factors.
Stop one, stop the crime.
Yet even though itâs vital to deter crimes whenever possible, Iâve always been more in the business of solving them after they do occur.
Like today at 1:48 p.m.âif the recollection of Mrs. Frasier was correct.
Three initial questions rolled through my mind: Why then? Why there? Why Ardis and Lizzie?
As I walked toward the mailbox, I clicked through what we knew so far about the progression of events:
1:48Â p.m.
Shots firedâStill need to confirm the time.
2:41Â p.m.
Snowmobile tracks veering off the trail are discovered entering a stretch of open water on Tomahawk Lake. Deputy Ellory photographs the tracks, then calls the FBI, emails the photos to the Lab.
3:30Â p.m.
The Lab identifies the tracks, and local law enforcement narrows down the pool of possible victims to four people in the area who own that model snowmobile.
4:02Â p.m.
Officers follow up on the owners and find Ardis and Lizzie Pickron murdered; Donnie missing.
4:30Â p.m.
Admiral Winchester, the Chief of Naval Operations, is already pressuring FBI Director Wellington to have agents look into the case.
A thought: So why the FBI and not NCIS? But the answer was immediately obvious: the Naval Criminal Investigative Service only investigates crimes involving active duty military personnel, and Donnie was retired military rather than active duty.
That left the Bureau rather than NCIS, but stillâwhy the high-level interest in a sawmill workerâs disappearance?
That was the big question. The hinge upon which all the other facts swung.
The Navyâs interest in the crime and the recently accessed websites on Ohio Class submarines didnât support the theory that the snowmobileâs trip off the ice and Donnieâs disappearance were the result of a simple suicide or a haphazard accident during a flight from a crime scene.
It didnât appear to be a robbery gone bad either.
When you move through a case, itâs best to ask the sensible, obvious questions first, just like a reporter might do: Who? What? Where? When? Why? How?
So, where had Donnie been earlier today? Did he show up at work? If this was a setup to make him look guilty, why would he be targeted? What had he done or what did he know that caused him to end up in someoneâs crosshairs? And what might decades-old submarine deployment records have to do with anything? And why would Donnieâor anyone elseâhave been so careless as to look them up on his computer after the murders?
And of course, what about the three shots through the window? Either they were fired out of necessity or they were not. But what necessity?
Questions, questions.
Too little data.
I started back for the house. The moon had slipped behind a stray cloud, leaving the stars to rule the night. Seeing them reminded me of the times in college when I worked as a wilderness guide in North Carolina. After enough nights out on the trail you
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