The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends That Will Disrupt the World

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Authors: Shaun Rein
Tags: General, Business & Economics
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today’s economic growth. These two prominent political and military figures both suffered during the Cultural Revolution. As with Lili Li, this personal horror shaped their worldview and influenced their families. Ye’s son, Ye Xuanping, who had also been jailed, became the governor of Guangdong and vice chairman of the People’s Political Consultative Congress. One of Ye’s daughters married Zou Jiahua, who became a vice premier. Another daughter married the former chairman of CITIC bank, the state-owned investment giant.
    Xi Jinping, presumed to be China’s next president, also suffered during the Cultural Revolution. He was sent to the countryside for a decade. His father, a former deputy prime minister, was removed from his position and jailed for 16 years. Tragedy also befell Bo Xilai, the current Party secretary of the western municipality of Chongqing and a rising star in the Party. His father, Bo Yibo, was one of the Party’s Eight Immortals, a group of senior officials who held top positions of power in the 1980s and 1990s. Bo Yibo’s entire family, including Bo Xilai, was jailed and shunted off to a labor camp for a decade. Yet Western analysts absurdly portray Bo Xilai as somehow wanting to return to the chaotic and violent days of the Cultural Revolution because of a “Red” patriotic campaign he is promoting in Chongqing.
    Personal tragedy during the Cultural Revolution influences the worldview of China’s leaders and citizens. Understanding China’s recent history sheds light on people’s day-to-day choices and optimism, and on government actions. Many Western analysts do not understand or underestimate the effects of recent history on contemporary society.
    In his recent book On China , former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger analyzes Imperial China to provide a framework for understanding the nation and how America needs to deal with a returning superpower. Others try to use an outdated Confucian framework or a Sun Tzu–based military philosophy to explain the country today. Analyzing the Cultural Revolution, and the personal tragedies suffered during the tumult, is a more useful framework for understanding China’s rise.
     
    The issue of human rights and how to define them is a major point of contention in U.S.–China relations. Christian groups deem China’s one-child policy evil. Supporters of the Dalai Lama and the World Uighur Congress argue that China suppresses their right of worship. In 2010, Google accused the government of trying to steal its code and stopped offering its search engine services in the Chinese market after it refused to censor itself. Critics denounced the government for blocking access to social media websites like Facebook and Twitter after the Muslim uprising in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, which resulted in over 1,000 casualties, and after protests in Iran were found to have been organized via social media. In a crackdown at the height of the Arab Spring, the government arrested dissidents like the artist Ai Weiwei, who designed the Bird’s Nest Stadium for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and kept Liu Xiaobo in jail even as he became the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize winner.
    Analysts like Elizabeth Economy from the Council on Foreign Relations argue that the government is cracking down because it fears being overthrown, like Mubarak in Egypt. In reality, it is more likely that China’s government is looking at decades of strength. Discontent bubbles up at times, but Economy and other analysts gloss over major differences between contemporary China and the conditions in the Middle East that gave rise to the Arab Spring.
    Unlike corrupt regimes in the Arab world, the Chinese government has diffused its power, so one family does not hold too much. This has established a crucial system of checks and balances to prevent totalitarian leadership. Middle Eastern families, like Mubarak’s in Egypt or Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s in Tunisia, were able to rule for

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