Read Online The Dictator's Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy by William J. Dobson - Free Book Online
Authors: William J. Dobson
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it takes to win a Russian election. He is the fifty-two-year-old chairman of the Niccolo M Group, one of the best-known political consulting firms in Moscow. (The name refers, of course, to Niccolò Machiavelli; Mintusov’s business card features a portrait of Machiavelli, peering at you from behind a globe.) Founded in 1992, the firm has run campaigns across Russia. Nor has Mintusov’s work been limited to his native land: he is well traveled, having helped direct political campaigns in Bolivia, Bulgaria, Chile, Estonia, Nicaragua, South Korea, Venezuela, and even the United States. And his services don’t come cheap.Lunch with Mintusov can reportedly cost a client thousands.
When we met, I asked him which campaigns he had worked on in the United States. One was a failed Democratic gubernatorial campaign in Florida against Jeb Bush. The other, he told me, was Senator Chris Dodd’s 1998 Connecticut reelection campaign. Mintusov was supposed to help with media messaging, so when he arrived, he went to meet with Dodd’s campaign manager. Straightaway, Mintusov asked about the media budget. So the campaign manager showed him what he had to work with. “He pointed to the budget for research, the budget for staff, the budget for getting out the vote, things like that,” recalls Mintusov. “I saw the salary for the press secretary, the expenses for equipment, office space, shipping costs, Internet, and I’m looking at it and say, ‘Well, it’s okay. But where’s the money for working with the media?’ ”
The campaign manager then repeated himself, reviewing the list of salaries, expenses, and whatnot. So Mintusov asked again. “I said I understand, but where is the budget for working with the media?”Again, the campaign manager walked down the same line items. And then it dawned on Mintusov. “Suddenly I understood that he didn’t understand my question at all,” says Mintusov, laughing. “Then I understood how spoiled I am in Russia!” Mintusov just assumed media, like everything else, was for sale.
It’s impossible that Mintusov could work in Russian election politics for so long, be regarded a success, and still have clean hands. He described Russian campaigns to me as “wars without rules,” and in this lawless environment Niccolo M had profited handsomely. Nevertheless, he claims even he had his limits. “The level of fraud in the last few years has become so extremely high that it discredited elections as elections,” he told me. So, at the end of 2008, Mintusov published a book detailing the rigging that had gone on in the Duma elections in 2007 and the presidential election of 2008. In an homage to his country’s most famous author, he titled it
Crime Without Punishment
.
In the murky world of Russian politics, it is hard to draw a straight line between motivations and actions. It could be true that it was some violation of integrity or lost professionalism that led Mintusov to break ranks. It also may be that the political operative had a falling-out with the ruling party’s kingmakers and then saw no disadvantage to publishing his book. In either case, Mintusov told me that United Russia sent a letter to its members telling them they could no longer retain the services of Niccolo M. With that, his firm was effectively barred from 80 percent of Russia’s political space. Then again, if Mintusov’s description is accurate, the fraud has gotten to the point where being a political consultant is almost a pointless profession. “Because what’s the point of developing a message and delivering the message well, when the result will be calculated the night after the election?” he told me.
As I was leaving, I asked him if he was familiar with the recent election involving Sergei Mitrokhin. He laughed, saying, “Yes, it’s an excellent example.”
Sergei Mitrokhin is the leader of Yabloko, a liberal, pro-Western opposition party. In the fall of 2009, Mitrokhin stood for reelection to the
When we met, I asked him which campaigns he had worked on in the United States. One was a failed Democratic gubernatorial campaign in Florida against Jeb Bush. The other, he told me, was Senator Chris Dodd’s 1998 Connecticut reelection campaign. Mintusov was supposed to help with media messaging, so when he arrived, he went to meet with Dodd’s campaign manager. Straightaway, Mintusov asked about the media budget. So the campaign manager showed him what he had to work with. “He pointed to the budget for research, the budget for staff, the budget for getting out the vote, things like that,” recalls Mintusov. “I saw the salary for the press secretary, the expenses for equipment, office space, shipping costs, Internet, and I’m looking at it and say, ‘Well, it’s okay. But where’s the money for working with the media?’ ”
The campaign manager then repeated himself, reviewing the list of salaries, expenses, and whatnot. So Mintusov asked again. “I said I understand, but where is the budget for working with the media?”Again, the campaign manager walked down the same line items. And then it dawned on Mintusov. “Suddenly I understood that he didn’t understand my question at all,” says Mintusov, laughing. “Then I understood how spoiled I am in Russia!” Mintusov just assumed media, like everything else, was for sale.
It’s impossible that Mintusov could work in Russian election politics for so long, be regarded a success, and still have clean hands. He described Russian campaigns to me as “wars without rules,” and in this lawless environment Niccolo M had profited handsomely. Nevertheless, he claims even he had his limits. “The level of fraud in the last few years has become so extremely high that it discredited elections as elections,” he told me. So, at the end of 2008, Mintusov published a book detailing the rigging that had gone on in the Duma elections in 2007 and the presidential election of 2008. In an homage to his country’s most famous author, he titled it
Crime Without Punishment
.
In the murky world of Russian politics, it is hard to draw a straight line between motivations and actions. It could be true that it was some violation of integrity or lost professionalism that led Mintusov to break ranks. It also may be that the political operative had a falling-out with the ruling party’s kingmakers and then saw no disadvantage to publishing his book. In either case, Mintusov told me that United Russia sent a letter to its members telling them they could no longer retain the services of Niccolo M. With that, his firm was effectively barred from 80 percent of Russia’s political space. Then again, if Mintusov’s description is accurate, the fraud has gotten to the point where being a political consultant is almost a pointless profession. “Because what’s the point of developing a message and delivering the message well, when the result will be calculated the night after the election?” he told me.
As I was leaving, I asked him if he was familiar with the recent election involving Sergei Mitrokhin. He laughed, saying, “Yes, it’s an excellent example.”
Sergei Mitrokhin is the leader of Yabloko, a liberal, pro-Western opposition party. In the fall of 2009, Mitrokhin stood for reelection to the
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