usual.
“Okay, we need to take this a step at a time. Zvi, I would like for you to return here with the outlines of two plans. The key assumption for each plan is that we are alone. But one will assume we use only conventional weapons and the other will, as a contingency, assume we use nuclear weapons. When can you be ready?”
“No,” uttered Ben Raibani as he shook his head, not allowing Avner time to respond.
“Ben, you do not agree?” asked the prime minister.
“No, I do not. I have been watching and participating in military and government planning in this country for too long. If we have a contingency plan, it means we will work to build this tactical nuclear device. Of course, we will do so just for the sake of contingency. But if we have the plan and the device, we will use it. I cannot support planning for something that we cannot and we must not do.”
Eli Cohen had hoped to skip past Raibani’s resistance, but had instead ignited a furious ten minute debate – really an argument – between two clear factions. The argument was ostensibly about the wisdom of creating a contingency plan, but that was a thin veil. Everyone knew exactly what the discussion was about. As before, Zvi Avner led the arguments in favor with support from his prime minister. Ben Raibani led the arguments against with support from Avi Gresch and an increasingly vocal Danny Stein. Everyone found themselves talking to Mort Yaguda, who was clearly undecided , as if he were the swing vote.
Finally Eli Cohen turned to Yavi Aitan, who had been silently absorbing each argument, his mind processing the issues a dozen steps into the future. “Yavi, you have kept quiet. What do you think?”
Aitan once again leaned forward in his chair. The youngest man in the room had just been vested by his prime minister with tremendous authority. “I think that Iran with nuclear weapons is catastrophic. I think that the State of Israel nuking them may be worse. Ben is right, if we use a nuclear weapon first, we will lose all support and our tiny country will stand utterly alone. I have come to learn and appreciate much in the seat that I currently have the honor to occupy. One thing I have learned is that the last thing I want to see happen is for us to lose the support of the American military and intelligence community.” Aitan was looking directly at his boss. “I am sorry Mister Prime Minister, but I have been thinking through how using nukes would play out and, while the tactical advantage is obvious, I cannot come to a conclusion that is good for us in the long-run.”
Eli Cohen threw his hands up in the air. “May I remind everyone in this room that we are deciding whether or not to allow Iran into the nuclear club.” He looked around the room. “This cannot happen.” He knew that every man in the room at least agreed with that statement. He suddenly relaxed and leaned back into his chair. “Okay, let’s do this. Zvi, come back with the outline of a conventional plan. Let’s go from there. All I ask each man here to do is to think about the alternative if we come to the conclusion that we have no viable conventional plan. Is that a fair request?” Each man in the room nodded in consent.
Raibani turned to his old colleague Avner. “But you have to give your planning group real support. You can’t sabotage their planning or poison the well.” Only he or Cohen could admonish Zvi Avner in this manner.
Cohen did not wait for Avner to reply. “That is a good point, Ben. Why don’t you participate with Zvi and the planning group? Zvi, what do you think?”
Both Avner and Raibani were caught off guard. But Raibani liked the idea and his face showed it. Avner did not, but he recognized that the only way he could come back into this room with a plan that he had concluded was not viable and have it accepted as such was if Raibani had been involved in the process. As Avner’s political mind came to this realization, he knew that the
“Okay, we need to take this a step at a time. Zvi, I would like for you to return here with the outlines of two plans. The key assumption for each plan is that we are alone. But one will assume we use only conventional weapons and the other will, as a contingency, assume we use nuclear weapons. When can you be ready?”
“No,” uttered Ben Raibani as he shook his head, not allowing Avner time to respond.
“Ben, you do not agree?” asked the prime minister.
“No, I do not. I have been watching and participating in military and government planning in this country for too long. If we have a contingency plan, it means we will work to build this tactical nuclear device. Of course, we will do so just for the sake of contingency. But if we have the plan and the device, we will use it. I cannot support planning for something that we cannot and we must not do.”
Eli Cohen had hoped to skip past Raibani’s resistance, but had instead ignited a furious ten minute debate – really an argument – between two clear factions. The argument was ostensibly about the wisdom of creating a contingency plan, but that was a thin veil. Everyone knew exactly what the discussion was about. As before, Zvi Avner led the arguments in favor with support from his prime minister. Ben Raibani led the arguments against with support from Avi Gresch and an increasingly vocal Danny Stein. Everyone found themselves talking to Mort Yaguda, who was clearly undecided , as if he were the swing vote.
Finally Eli Cohen turned to Yavi Aitan, who had been silently absorbing each argument, his mind processing the issues a dozen steps into the future. “Yavi, you have kept quiet. What do you think?”
Aitan once again leaned forward in his chair. The youngest man in the room had just been vested by his prime minister with tremendous authority. “I think that Iran with nuclear weapons is catastrophic. I think that the State of Israel nuking them may be worse. Ben is right, if we use a nuclear weapon first, we will lose all support and our tiny country will stand utterly alone. I have come to learn and appreciate much in the seat that I currently have the honor to occupy. One thing I have learned is that the last thing I want to see happen is for us to lose the support of the American military and intelligence community.” Aitan was looking directly at his boss. “I am sorry Mister Prime Minister, but I have been thinking through how using nukes would play out and, while the tactical advantage is obvious, I cannot come to a conclusion that is good for us in the long-run.”
Eli Cohen threw his hands up in the air. “May I remind everyone in this room that we are deciding whether or not to allow Iran into the nuclear club.” He looked around the room. “This cannot happen.” He knew that every man in the room at least agreed with that statement. He suddenly relaxed and leaned back into his chair. “Okay, let’s do this. Zvi, come back with the outline of a conventional plan. Let’s go from there. All I ask each man here to do is to think about the alternative if we come to the conclusion that we have no viable conventional plan. Is that a fair request?” Each man in the room nodded in consent.
Raibani turned to his old colleague Avner. “But you have to give your planning group real support. You can’t sabotage their planning or poison the well.” Only he or Cohen could admonish Zvi Avner in this manner.
Cohen did not wait for Avner to reply. “That is a good point, Ben. Why don’t you participate with Zvi and the planning group? Zvi, what do you think?”
Both Avner and Raibani were caught off guard. But Raibani liked the idea and his face showed it. Avner did not, but he recognized that the only way he could come back into this room with a plan that he had concluded was not viable and have it accepted as such was if Raibani had been involved in the process. As Avner’s political mind came to this realization, he knew that the
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