Code Word: Paternity, A Presidential Thriller

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Authors: Doug Norton
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of
isotopes—U-238, -235, -232 if it’s reprocessed fuel—plus traces of the
impurities in the ore. When a nuke detonates, only about one percent of the
bomb material is actually consumed. I know that’s amazing, but we have data
from sixty-plus bomb tests in the Pacific and in Nevada. We know exactly what happens when a
nuclear weapon explodes, as do the other major nuclear powers: Britain, France,
Russia and China.”
    The CIA director paused for a swallow of
coffee from a paper cup bearing the presidential seal, then resumed.
      “So, ninety-nine percent of the bomb is among
the debris and fallout of the explosion and—again because of many tests—the
techniques for collecting and analyzing the debris are well understood. Another
amazing but well-documented fact is that the isotopic composition of the
uranium debris is virtually identical to its pre-explosion state. In addition,
trace elements of the uranium ore’s impurities can be detected.
    “Plutonium is created by nuclear
reactors, using various methods. For now I’ll just say this makes the tags on
debris of a plutonium weapon more distinct and easier to match than those of a
uranium bomb.
    “Bottom line: every nuke has a signature.
    “For both types of weapons the
identification technique is conceptually like fingerprinting, or identification
from iris patterns. It’s not especially demanding scientifically, once the data
have been collected . . . and the Paternity Project has been collecting that
data for more than thirty years.
      “Questions when you are ready, Mr. President.”
Hitzleberger sat down.
    Griffith ignored his president and spoke, drawing
several expressions of disbelief: “So tell us: who are the bastards that
provided the bomb?”
      Wat ching Martin ,
Hitzleberger followed instructions. “We’re still running tests and collecting
additional samples. One thing we learned right away: it was a plutonium
weapon.”
    Rick said, “Bruce, once we have the
report, naturally we’ll all want to concentrate on what to do next. But right
now, I need your help digging into the credibility of Paternity. With all due
respect to Aaron and Scott, who weren’t involved, I remember when the Agency
said finding Saddam’s WMD would be a slam dunk. We need to consider a huge
issue: What reliance are we going to place on the results when we get them? And
how will we convince others?”
    Battista cleared her throat, something
that Dorn always felt was contrived and annoying, then spoke. “Science is all
about challenge. One lab produces a result and other labs rush to see whether
they get the same result, independently. Scientists argue ferociously before
they accept someone’s hypothesis. Think global warming. If we present this as a
purely scientific judgment, no matter how strong the evidence, we’re going to
get a lot of pushback! So, we should also be asking what other information
would point to the bomb’s origin.”
    She’s
right , Dorn thought;
despite her affectations she has a
top-notch mind . He said, “Well, we should certainly do what any good
detective does: see who had motive and opportunity. Also, the old cui bono
question—who benefits?”
    Griffith said, “I’m betting this weapon changed
hands for money, a lot of money. If we follow the money, it will lead to
somebody. If money confirms science, we’re looking better.”
    “So there may be some other indicators,
beyond Paternity,” said Martin. “But let’s focus for a moment on the scientific
case.” He shifted his gaze to Hitzleberger as he spoke. “Scott, let’s start
with reproducibility.”
    “Sir, we’re addressing that right now.
We’ve got several teams working independently with the samples and the
database.”
    “Yeah, that’s good, but I meant
non-government labs. How much sample material do you have? Enough to make some
broadly available to the scientific community? If not that, then, say, to three
or four other governments?”
    “Sir, there’s

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