wry smile, ‘and I’m not sure I am capable, or if I were, if I would be welcome.’
‘Interest just general, is it, then?’ To respond to that was tricky because he did not want to lie if he could avoid it. The pause was enough for his host: he was a man of enormous discretion. ‘None of my concern, of course, so don’t bother with a reply.’
The finger was on the map now, pointing to the main Italian base at Asmara, then tracing the main route up past Lake Tana to the Abyssinian capital. ‘Addis is the key for the invaders, and given what we suspect the locals have, to try and stop them in open battle could be suicidal. A native army can rarely fight a modern one as Britannia proved too often in the past. Much harder now, of course, and as you so rightly point out, equipment apart, the enemy is not going to allow itself to be overcome by numbers this time.’
‘So the tactical advice would be to avoid contact?’
‘Most definitely, young Jardine.’ That way of addressing him had always made him curious, always made him wonder if Amherst knew an older Jardine; he had never had the audacity to ask. ‘But those Russians were right forty years ago and Menelik was lucky. If they have someone giving that advice now and they ignore it, they will be annihilated. Look here.’
Always brisk in his speech, that was given like a command.
‘The Danakil Desert to the east, bad country to fight in for anyone, but open and thus ten times worse for an army without an air force. Any incursion south of there from Italian Somaliland will be as much a diversion as real, to draw off part of the defence in Tigray Province. The route from Asmara to the south is the way the Italian army will employ for their main advance, and here, on the Ethiopian west,’ a finger jabbed down, ‘the mountains and the Great Rift Valley – that is where they should seek to fight.’
‘Let the Italians have Addis Ababa?’
‘The Russians let Napoleon have Moscow, and look what happened to him. Attrition is the key to defeating Mussolini, a drawn-out war and mounting casualties that cause him trouble with his home population. Seek to use the cover provided by the mountains and forested valleys, hold off his forces till the weather changes and the rains come, which are torrential in the mountains. Low cloud means planes can’t fly, which neuters the air force and time spent clambering about in wet weather will make his troops tired, miserable and sick of being away from home.Use ambuscade and stick to small-scale actions, that is what you should advise this Haile Selassie chappie.’
That was followed by a direct look and a rather toothy smile. ‘But, of course, you are not advising him, are you, young Jardine?’
‘Is there a flaw in that notion?’
‘Well spotted, boy,’ Amherst cried, like a pleased schoolmaster. ‘You recall my saying the place is very tribal and the present Lion of Judah, as Selassie styles himself, is not loved by all. There has been much palace intrigue in old Ethiopia, don’t you know. Had to manoeuvre his way to the top spot, so he might be in a jam if it comes to a long drawn-out war. Might need a quick victory just to hold his position. If he tries it, he will lose. Tricky, what?’
‘Surely the solution would be to offer battle once, with a pre-plan to break off the action quickly, retreat to prepared positions for stands of short duration, with a rearguard willing to make the necessary sacrifices as his forces disperse into the mountains. Thus he shows the folly of engagement in force and gets his tribes to agree to a new strategy. From what I have read, the one thing that unites them is the determination not to become just another subject African race.’
‘It’s damned difficult for a disciplined army to retreat in good order, laddie. For what is really a peasant force it might be impossible, and that means sacrificing his best troops to save the mass. Without those semi-professional levies he
‘Interest just general, is it, then?’ To respond to that was tricky because he did not want to lie if he could avoid it. The pause was enough for his host: he was a man of enormous discretion. ‘None of my concern, of course, so don’t bother with a reply.’
The finger was on the map now, pointing to the main Italian base at Asmara, then tracing the main route up past Lake Tana to the Abyssinian capital. ‘Addis is the key for the invaders, and given what we suspect the locals have, to try and stop them in open battle could be suicidal. A native army can rarely fight a modern one as Britannia proved too often in the past. Much harder now, of course, and as you so rightly point out, equipment apart, the enemy is not going to allow itself to be overcome by numbers this time.’
‘So the tactical advice would be to avoid contact?’
‘Most definitely, young Jardine.’ That way of addressing him had always made him curious, always made him wonder if Amherst knew an older Jardine; he had never had the audacity to ask. ‘But those Russians were right forty years ago and Menelik was lucky. If they have someone giving that advice now and they ignore it, they will be annihilated. Look here.’
Always brisk in his speech, that was given like a command.
‘The Danakil Desert to the east, bad country to fight in for anyone, but open and thus ten times worse for an army without an air force. Any incursion south of there from Italian Somaliland will be as much a diversion as real, to draw off part of the defence in Tigray Province. The route from Asmara to the south is the way the Italian army will employ for their main advance, and here, on the Ethiopian west,’ a finger jabbed down, ‘the mountains and the Great Rift Valley – that is where they should seek to fight.’
‘Let the Italians have Addis Ababa?’
‘The Russians let Napoleon have Moscow, and look what happened to him. Attrition is the key to defeating Mussolini, a drawn-out war and mounting casualties that cause him trouble with his home population. Seek to use the cover provided by the mountains and forested valleys, hold off his forces till the weather changes and the rains come, which are torrential in the mountains. Low cloud means planes can’t fly, which neuters the air force and time spent clambering about in wet weather will make his troops tired, miserable and sick of being away from home.Use ambuscade and stick to small-scale actions, that is what you should advise this Haile Selassie chappie.’
That was followed by a direct look and a rather toothy smile. ‘But, of course, you are not advising him, are you, young Jardine?’
‘Is there a flaw in that notion?’
‘Well spotted, boy,’ Amherst cried, like a pleased schoolmaster. ‘You recall my saying the place is very tribal and the present Lion of Judah, as Selassie styles himself, is not loved by all. There has been much palace intrigue in old Ethiopia, don’t you know. Had to manoeuvre his way to the top spot, so he might be in a jam if it comes to a long drawn-out war. Might need a quick victory just to hold his position. If he tries it, he will lose. Tricky, what?’
‘Surely the solution would be to offer battle once, with a pre-plan to break off the action quickly, retreat to prepared positions for stands of short duration, with a rearguard willing to make the necessary sacrifices as his forces disperse into the mountains. Thus he shows the folly of engagement in force and gets his tribes to agree to a new strategy. From what I have read, the one thing that unites them is the determination not to become just another subject African race.’
‘It’s damned difficult for a disciplined army to retreat in good order, laddie. For what is really a peasant force it might be impossible, and that means sacrificing his best troops to save the mass. Without those semi-professional levies he
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