Straits of Power

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of deduction but they’re effective tools in the hands of our capable analysts.”
    The president spoke again. “Mohr’s presence in Istanbul, instead of somewhere else such as safe in Berlin, suggests he needs to be forward-deployed for a purpose.”
    “Yes,” the CIA head replied. “Istanbul is potentially fatal ground. We know the Mossad is murdering people from the German consulate there.”
    “Not at the embassy in Ankara too?” Ankara was the capital of Turkey, almost two hundred miles east and well inland.
    “No, not in Ankara. Which says something, Mr. President. Istanbul is definitely Israel’s focus for their hit teams.”
    “How’s Turkey taking all this?”
    “They appear to not be reacting, and we can’t find out a thing about this from their government. . . . They’ve always had friendly relations with Israel. . . . Also, our brothel contact relayed that most of the people the Mossad killed were Peapod-Mohr’s subordinates.”
    “You’re suggesting the Israelis have launched a campaign against whatever it is the Germans are up to?”
    “That does appear to be the case, Mr. President. Even the Mossad would not be so aggressive on neutral soil without good reason. Or what seemed to them good reason.”
    “Have we asked them?”
    “Yes. They refuse to comment.”
    The president grunted. “Not surprising. Israel always does look out for number one. . . . But you are telling us that the Mossad’s behavior seems to confirm that Mohr’s actual activities, behind his cover story, are perceived as a serious threat to them?”
    “Yes.”
    “Which seems to further validate Mohr as someone with crucial expertise, who needs to be close to Israel, on neutral turf, to do what the Germans want him to do.”
    “Yes. At least, so the Israelis think. They’ve made mistakes before, though, killed innocent people before.”
    There was another long and uncomfortable silence.
    The FBI head broke it. “This is all so circumstantial. Whorehouses, maybe-misguided Mossad assassins, a trade attaché who might or might not be a trade attaché, who might or might not have sent us a weird transmission, which might or might not be a fake, and who might or might not sincerely want to betray his own country. . . .”
    The CIA director stared across the table and told him, “In the spy-versus-spy business, circumstantial is often all you get. You said it yourself.”
    “It’s not symmetric, as you’re perfectly well aware. Circumstantial evidence is enough to yank Reebeck’s clearance. It’s not enough to mount a big extraction job that could be a waste of time and lives, or a trap. . . . The Mossad activity, to me, is a throwaway. They could’ve been fooled by part of the same stratagem Mohr’s aiming to pull against us, his pretending to be so valuable. He might be in Istanbul, forward-deployed, because it makes him just accessible enough for the snare he’s setting to catch something juicy.”
    Jeffrey had to admit that the FBI director had done his homework. Everything we know could be taken two ways. Everything. The CIA and FBI are deadlocked here.
    The president shifted in his seat, to announce a change in subject. “Let’s tackle another wild card, the one that I don’t mind saying really scares me. The Israeli atom bombs planted in Germany. They’ve become severely relevant. Peapod claims he knows about German intentions in the Middle East, and Istanbul is on one doorstep to the Middle East. What’s the latest you’ve got on Israel’s rules of engagement for setting off those bombs? Their prime minister clams up every time I prod him for answers, then turns around and demands more arms, aid money, and loan guarantees. Same old same old, Israel’s stated official policy of nuclear ambiguity.”
    “Nothing new to report, Mr. President,” the CIA director said. “The bombs are there as a deterrent. A deterrent is only effective if the other side knows you have the will to use

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