Read Online On the Brink by Henry M. Paulson - Free Book Online Page A
Authors: Henry M. Paulson
Tags: United States, General, Biography & Autobiography, Political, Political Science, Business & Economics, Economic History, Economic Conditions, Economic Policy, Public Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Economics: Professional & General, Financial crises & disasters, 2008-2009
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the savings and loan crisis in the late ’80s and early ’90s, the bond market blowup of 1994, and the crisis that began in Asia in 1997 and continued with Russia’s default on its debt in 1998. I was convinced we were due for another disruption.
I detailed the big increase in the size of unregulated pools of capital such as hedge funds and private-equity funds, as well as the exponential growth of unregulated over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives like credit default swaps (CDS).
“All of this,” I concluded, “has allowed an enormous amount of leverage—and risk—to creep into the financial system.”
“How did this happen?” the president asked.
It was a humbling question for someone from the financial sector to be asked—after all, we were the ones responsible. I was also keenly aware of the president’s heart-of-the-country disdain for Wall Street and its perceived arrogance and excesses. But it was evident that the administration had not focused on these areas before, so I gave a quick primer on hedging; how and why it was done.
“Airlines,” I explained, “might want to hedge against rising fuel costs by buying futures to lock in today’s prices for future needs. Or an exporter like Mexico might agree to sell oil in the future at today’s levels if it thinks the price is going down.”
I explained how on Wall Street, if you had a big inventory of bonds, you could hedge yourself by buying credit derivatives, which were relatively new instruments designed to pay out should the bonds they insured default or be downgraded by a rating agency. My explanation involved considerable and complex detail, and the president listened carefully. He might not have had my technical knowledge of finance, but he had a Harvard MBA and a good natural feel for markets.
“How much of this activity is just speculation?” he wanted to know.
It was a good question, and one I had been asking myself. Credit derivatives, credit default swaps in particular, had increasingly alarmed me over the past couple of years. The basic concept was sound and useful. But the devil was in the details—and the details were murky. No one knew how much insurance was written on any credit in this private, over-the-counter market. Settling trades had become a worrying mess: in some cases, backlogs ran to months.
Tim Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shared my concern and had pressed Wall Street firms hard to clean up their act while I was at Goldman. I had loaned him Gerry Corrigan, a Goldman managing director and risk expert who had been a no-nonsense predecessor of Tim’s at the New York Fed. Gerry led a study, released in 2005, calling for major changes in back-office processes, among other things. Progress had been made, but the lack of transparency of these CDS contracts, coupled with their startling growth rate, unnerved me.
“We can’t predict when the next crisis will come,” I said. “But we need to be prepared.”
In response to a question of the president’s, I said it was impossible to know what might trigger a big disruption. Using the analogy of a forest fire, I said it mattered less how the blaze started than it did to be prepared to contain it—and then put it out.
I was right to be on my guard, but I misread the cause, and the scale, of the coming disaster. Notably absent from my presentation was any mention of problems in housing or mortgages.
I left the mountain retreat confident that I would have a good relationship with my new boss. Wendy shared my conviction, despite her initial reservations about my accepting the job. I later learned that the president had also been apprehensive about how Wendy and I would fit in, given her fund-raising for Hillary Clinton, my ties to Wall Street, and our fervent support of environmental causes. He, too, came away encouraged and increasingly comfortable with us. In fact, we would be among the few non-family members invited to join the president and
I detailed the big increase in the size of unregulated pools of capital such as hedge funds and private-equity funds, as well as the exponential growth of unregulated over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives like credit default swaps (CDS).
“All of this,” I concluded, “has allowed an enormous amount of leverage—and risk—to creep into the financial system.”
“How did this happen?” the president asked.
It was a humbling question for someone from the financial sector to be asked—after all, we were the ones responsible. I was also keenly aware of the president’s heart-of-the-country disdain for Wall Street and its perceived arrogance and excesses. But it was evident that the administration had not focused on these areas before, so I gave a quick primer on hedging; how and why it was done.
“Airlines,” I explained, “might want to hedge against rising fuel costs by buying futures to lock in today’s prices for future needs. Or an exporter like Mexico might agree to sell oil in the future at today’s levels if it thinks the price is going down.”
I explained how on Wall Street, if you had a big inventory of bonds, you could hedge yourself by buying credit derivatives, which were relatively new instruments designed to pay out should the bonds they insured default or be downgraded by a rating agency. My explanation involved considerable and complex detail, and the president listened carefully. He might not have had my technical knowledge of finance, but he had a Harvard MBA and a good natural feel for markets.
“How much of this activity is just speculation?” he wanted to know.
It was a good question, and one I had been asking myself. Credit derivatives, credit default swaps in particular, had increasingly alarmed me over the past couple of years. The basic concept was sound and useful. But the devil was in the details—and the details were murky. No one knew how much insurance was written on any credit in this private, over-the-counter market. Settling trades had become a worrying mess: in some cases, backlogs ran to months.
Tim Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shared my concern and had pressed Wall Street firms hard to clean up their act while I was at Goldman. I had loaned him Gerry Corrigan, a Goldman managing director and risk expert who had been a no-nonsense predecessor of Tim’s at the New York Fed. Gerry led a study, released in 2005, calling for major changes in back-office processes, among other things. Progress had been made, but the lack of transparency of these CDS contracts, coupled with their startling growth rate, unnerved me.
“We can’t predict when the next crisis will come,” I said. “But we need to be prepared.”
In response to a question of the president’s, I said it was impossible to know what might trigger a big disruption. Using the analogy of a forest fire, I said it mattered less how the blaze started than it did to be prepared to contain it—and then put it out.
I was right to be on my guard, but I misread the cause, and the scale, of the coming disaster. Notably absent from my presentation was any mention of problems in housing or mortgages.
I left the mountain retreat confident that I would have a good relationship with my new boss. Wendy shared my conviction, despite her initial reservations about my accepting the job. I later learned that the president had also been apprehensive about how Wendy and I would fit in, given her fund-raising for Hillary Clinton, my ties to Wall Street, and our fervent support of environmental causes. He, too, came away encouraged and increasingly comfortable with us. In fact, we would be among the few non-family members invited to join the president and
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